By Mike Sage - The Movie Sage
With noms out this week, here are my predictions.
Best Picture
What Should Win: Up in the Air
What Will Win: Avatar
After last year's Oscars saw the notorious snubbing of popular, critically acclaimed movies The Dark Knight and Wall-E, the Academy opened up the best picture race to 10 this year to allow more deserving flicks to make the cut, even if they stand no chance of winning. Although it's a shame the thrilling Star Trek was ignored, at least sci-fi made a big splash with Avatar, the highest grossing film of all time and District 9 (even if I still think the faux doc is overrated). Avatar will likely win, though I'd prefer the relevant, hilarious and touching Up in the Air. Mind you, the critical darling nobody beyond the critics saw or liked (The Hurt Locker) could become the lowest grossing best Picture pretty much ever to win.
Best Director
Who Should Win: James Cameron, Avatar
Who Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
A female director is definitely due - and it's cool that it wouldn't be for a heart-wrenching drama about breast cancer or a mature romantic comedy. However, as well produced and directed as the Hurt Locker may be (for all its lacking story), James Cameron really deserves the trophy for the incredible feat of shepherding the world of Pandora into theatres. The epic has revolutionized the way we see movies and with $2 billion in grosses, should keep food on the Hollywood tables for at least a few weeks. Lee Daniels is also worth recognition, for taking Mariah "Glitter" Carey and earning some good acting in Precious.
Best Actor
Who Will and Should Win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Much like Mickey Rourke's career-defining turn in The Wrestler made that film, Jeff Bridges is the captivating reason to see Crazy Heart. However, with weaker competition this year (no Sean Penn to be seen amongst these nominees), Bridges is steam-rolling his way to a landslide victory over Colin Firth (A Single Man) and George Clooney (Up in the Air), which would make this his first win after five noms.
Best Actress
Who Should and Will Win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
I predicted it when Sandy's uplifting football drama first hit theatres, and now, $230 million box office later (the highest for a female star vehicle), the Speed and Miss Congeniality winner is en route to her first Oscar, while p-o-ing the snobs. Meryl Streep is the biggest competition with her dang-on impersonation of Julia Child and Carey Mulligan is probably the dark horse. While The Blind Side may only be a serviceable film, Sandra's presence elevates the story, and helped to demonstrate the power an inspiring performance can have on audiences.
Best Supporting Actor and Actress
Who Will and Should Win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds; Mo'Nique, Precious
In the year's most boring Oscar races, we have two incredible villainous performances with a near 100 per cent chance of winning. He was the charming, manipulative SS Nazi we loved to hate in Basterds, and she the monstrously abusive welfare mom we just plain hated in Precious.
Mike Sage is a documentary filmmaker, editor and film critic. He can be reached at mikewsage@gmail.com.
