If voters have to choose ...

When given the choice between Peter Kelly and Sheila Fougere as mayor of Halifax Regional Municipality, just under one-half of residents choose Kelly, and two in 10 support Fougere, a recent Corporate Research Associates poll suggests.

While support for Kelly, who currently serves as mayor of HRM, and mayoralty candidate Fougere have both declined in the past three months, the gap between the two candidates has narrowed.

When given the two choices, 48 per cent of those surveyed chose Kelly, and 20 per cent picked Fougere. A similar poll in February had Fougere at 23 per cent and Kelly at 58 per cent.

Regionally, support for Kelly, who lives in Bedford and served as mayor of the former Town of Bedford, is highest in Bedford and Sackville, while support for Fougere is highest in Halifax where she currently serves as district councillor for the Connaught-Quinpool area.

Corporate Research Associates president Don Mills said CRA has been tracking the mayoralty race for this October's municipal election since last year when it became clear Kelly would have competition for the job he's held since October 2000.

In the 2004 municipal election, Kelly handily beat out three contenders for his job with 102,813 of the 126,010 votes cast, representing 48.8 per cent of the 258,396 eligible voters.

In the second quarter of 2007, Mills said, Kelly had a stronger lead, but Fougere has her work cut out for her if she wants to unseat the current mayor.

"For her to win, she has to make up at least half that gap ... so that's her challenge, and it's a pretty significant one," Mill said. "Kelly is pretty popular overall."

Mills said it's not surprising that Kelly's biggest fans are in Bedford and Sackville, where he has family roots.

"That's where it has been in the past, that's for sure. You've got good name recognition out there," Mills said. "He's got a strong base and it's hard to counter that strong base unless you are significantly different on issues that impacts every citizen in some fashion."

Fougere was the first woman elected to Halifax regional council when she was voted in as District 14 councillor in 1998. In the 2004 municipal election, Fougere won 81 per cent of the 4,889 votes cast in her district, beating out two other contenders.

So far, only Kelly and Fougere have thrown their names in the hat for the mayor's seat, but there's still time for a newcomer to come on board.

However, Mills said, a third candidate will only ensure Kelly a win.

"If somebody does it, will make it impossible to beat Mr. Kelly. There are clearly people who would like to see the mayor replaced, but if you have two candidates running against him, it will just split the vote," Mills said.

The remainder of the 401 HRM residents polled between May 2 and May 12 said they don't plan to vote, would not vote for either candidate or refused to answer.

The poll is considered accurate within plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

kmoar@hfxnews.ca